Thursday, February 20, 2020

How To Lie With Statistics

In my utopia, you have to pass a test on the contents of Darrell Huff's classic before you can vote.  Unless you understand how we are routinely entranced and manipulated by the deceptive presentation of numbers, how can you even function as a responsible citizen of the modern world?  

Luckily, you don't need to study very hard to develop a statistical bullshit detector.  Huff's book is short, entertaining, and readable by anyone with a high school math education.  He draws on annual reports, newspaper articles, opinion polls and the like to give a million real world examples of the way numbers can be massaged to lend an air of incontrovertibility to a spurious conclusion.  As a professional cynic who spends some chunk of each day muttering obscenities at misleading articles and company reports, I can assure that there are more examples available in 2020 than when he wrote the book in 1954.  Lying with statistics just never goes out of style.  However, I also think there's nothing new under the sun; Huff's description of the major genres of manipulation, and his concluding summary of what questions you should ask of a dubious statistic, still applies perfectly today.  

So go read the book.  No matter how well versed you are in lying or being lied to, you can always use a refresher course.

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