Thursday, September 24, 2009

Not to be difficult, but ...

Today   20090924

Stock market up, household net worth up, confidence in spite of falling wages and rising unemployment up, debt-fueled consumption up, and voila! It's 2006 again. Or, look no further than yesterday's comment from Lennar CEO Scott Shipley: "The sense that now is the time to buy is starting to gain momentum as potential qualified purchasers are getting confirmation from news reports and the overall stock market that prices are at or near lows." 

Take an image of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke silently wiping a single tear of joy from his cheek as that comment scrolled across his Bloomberg terminal.

Yesteryear  19300924

Observers believe little liquidation of investment holdings has taken place in Sept.; market break is attributed to bull pools becoming discouraged and selling out stocks they were sponsoring. While business pessimism has returned in past 10 days, there doesn't seem to be reason behind it other than the market decline.

Reflexivity famously goes in both directions.

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