Monday, April 6, 2009

Macro Man was right

China's Martingale currency strategy is misguided:

In some sense, it makes financial sense for China to take its financial lumps sooner rater than later. Buying dollars to keep the dollar from falling (against the RMB) allows China to avoid taking losses now, but that implies that China is effectively taking on the risk of a much larger loss in the future. So far, though, China's leaders have always preferred to risk a bigger loss in the future than take a certain loss today – and to defer shifting the basis of China's growth away from exports rather than to force adjustment immediately. Unless those preferences change, China doesn't have much leverage.

In this context I would vote for an extension of Clasewitz's famous formula -- if war is politics by other means, then reserve accumulation is war by other means.  How else are you supposed to challenge American geopolitical dominance besides smuggling this suitcase nuke into the heart of finance?

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