Monday, January 12, 2009

But what about the timing?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard tells a completely coherent story about how bond yields are going to rise (the headline is dumb -- people have started abusing the term bubble, and pretty soon it isnt going to mean anything anymore).

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have fallen to 2.4pc – a level that was unseen even in the Great Depression. This is "return-free risk", said bond guru Jim Grant.

The problem is that timing this trade is pretty hard.  I doubt that it will take a better part of the decade for Helicopter Ben to reflate the economy, but the better part of a year or two ... that doesn't sound so crazy.  This is why it's so hard to go short treasuries and long inflation at the moment.

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